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News · real estate

The biggest real estate stories of the last 3 years.

Fed Cuts Rates 25bps, Signals More Easing Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% in September 2025, the first cut of the year, citing a challenging economy and weakening labor market. Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a risk-management cut, balancing upside inflation risks with growing downside labor risks. The Fed's updated projections signal two more cuts this year, with the funds rate expected to reach 3.60% by year-end. Powell noted that a BLS revision overstated payrolls by 911,000 jobs over the past year, intensifying labor market concerns. Inflation remains elevated, with headline CPI at 2.9% year-on-year and core inflation steady at 3.1%. The decision was not unanimous, with new Fed governor Stephen Miran dissenting. Markets are pricing in further easing, with expectations of up to six cuts before reaching a terminal rate.
ccn.com Jun 18, 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid CPI Re-acceleration
The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, despite May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to a three-year high of 4.2%. Futures markets predict the rate will reach 4% by year-end with no anticipated cuts, setting up the July FOMC meeting as a critical next test.
cnbc.com Jan 28, 2026
Fed's Warsh Signals September Rate Hike Likely
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a likely interest rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, citing insufficiently slowed inflation. Following his Jackson Hole speech, market probability of a rate increase rose above 50%, up from 35%. Warsh did not commit definitively, noting the August CPI report due September 11 will be crucial; a further rise would increase tightening odds, while a slowdown could reduce pressure. Analysts at Barclays and Société Générale predict a quarter-point hike in September and another in December. The decision carries political weight ahead of November midterm elections, with President Trump pushing for lower borrowing costs.
voiceofemirates.com Aug 29, 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Firm 2% Inflation Target
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, signaled that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months if inflation does not show clear progress toward the 2% target. In his keynote address, Warsh stated that recent better-than-expected inflation readings 'do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved' and that the Fed will 'have work to do' if policymakers lack confidence that underlying inflation is moving to the objective 'clearly and at sufficient speed.' The remarks drew applause from global central bankers and increased market bets on a rate hike, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rising to roughly a coin flip, up from about one-third before the speech. The two-year Treasury yield rose from 4.22% to 4.30%, reflecting expectations of higher short-term rates, while longer-term yields were flat. Warsh abandoned the flexible average inflation targeting approach, emphasizing a firm 2% goal. He noted that about half of the items in the PCE basket are increasing at more than a 3% annual rate, well above the pre-pandemic norm of roughly one-third. The July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index showed a 3.7% annual rise, with core PCE at 3.3%, while the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% over 12 months through July. Warsh acknowledged that 'short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate' and said the Fed 'needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible' to set proper monetary policy, indirectly addressing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's measures to lower long-term yields, including doubling Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, which puts fiscal and monetary policy at cross-purposes. Warsh noted that capital expenditures are up 9% over four quarters—over half attributed to AI buildout—and consumer spending increased by more than 2%, suggesting the economy is not slowing significantly. A New York Fed study estimated that about 26% of tariff increases have passed through to consumer prices, with indirect effects taking nine to 12 months to appear, while geopolitical risks, including pressure on Iran, could push energy prices higher. Fed Cleveland President Beth Hammack has also said a rate increase is necessary if price pressures persist. Former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker commented, 'We're moving up on six years where we've been above target... actions speak way louder than words.' The next FOMC meetings are September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9, with a hike seen as increasingly likely by year-end. Warsh replaced Jerome Powell in late May. President Donald Trump has continued to call for lower rates and has renewed efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which would enable him to appoint a majority of the seven-member board.
finance.yahoo.com Aug 25, 2026
Bond sell-off threatens higher borrowing costs for Americans
A bond market sell-off, fueled by inflation fears and record U.S. government debt, has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007, at 5.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.7% from 4.2% in January. The Treasury Department reported federal debt hit a record $40 trillion, and the U.S. now pays $3 billion in interest per day, making interest the government's second-largest expense after Social Security. Higher yields are raising borrowing costs for Americans, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 6.67%, near a one-year high, and also increasing rates on credit cards and auto loans. The sell-off reflects investor concerns over fiscal profligacy, Middle East instability, and tech giants like Amazon and Meta issuing $93 billion in debt last year for AI investments. The Treasury doubled bond buybacks to at least $4 billion to stabilize markets, briefly lowering yields, but analysts warn rates may stay elevated, pressuring borrowers while benefiting savers with higher returns on CDs and savings accounts. Despite the bond market's alarm, stock markets remain at record highs, as corporate profits stay strong, though rising borrowing costs could eventually slow economic growth.
npr.org Aug 20, 2026
Treasury bond buyback complicates Fed Chair Warsh's rate path
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh are publicly diverging on whether to intervene in bond markets, with Bessent doubling down on a plan to contain long-term borrowing costs while Warsh advocates letting markets set rates. Bessent announced last week that the Treasury will at least double buybacks of 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds to $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, after the 30-year yield hit its highest level in nearly 20 years. The move initially pushed down long-term yields before they resumed rising, and investors read it as a signal Washington won't let 10-year yields approach 5% unanswered. Critics, including billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, call it 'price management' that could damage Treasury credibility, arguing that strong growth, sticky inflation, likely Fed hikes, and heavy bond supply—not market dysfunction—are driving yields higher. The intervention comes as U.S. sovereign debt reached a record $40 trillion and the federal budget deficit is on track to hit $2 trillion this fiscal year, with annual debt interest costs already at $1 trillion. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and the IMF describe the buyback, along with recent U.S.-Japan joint action to boost the yen using the Fed's FIMA repo facility, as 'soft-form financial repression' aimed at containing yields without addressing root causes like massive deficits. Markets have responded by increasing bets on the 'debasement trade,' driving gold and bitcoin prices higher on expectations of dollar weakening. The divide between Bessent and Warsh will come into focus on Friday when Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole; he wants bond markets to play a bigger role in setting rates, a stance at odds with Bessent's interventionism. Warsh, who led the Fed to a 9-3 decision last month to hold rates steady, has resisted giving rate-path clues, leaving markets guessing. Bessent pushed back on cross-purpose concerns, saying the Treasury and Fed would coordinate on balance-sheet changes, but analysts warn that if Warsh does not recognize the buyback as easing financial conditions, it could further weaken the dollar and force more aggressive rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.
finance.yahoo.com Aug 19, 2026
Fed minutes show rate hike likely if inflation persists
Federal Reserve minutes from the July 28-29 meeting show many officials believe a rate hike will be necessary soon if inflation does not decline, with some deeming financial conditions insufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with dissenting regional presidents favoring a quarter-point increase to avoid steeper tightening later. Since the meeting, monthly price data has shown modest increases—consumer prices rose just 0.1% in July, helped by a temporary drop in energy prices during a lull in the Iran war—though annual inflation remains above target and fighting has since intensified, pushing gas prices higher. Employment softened with a 23,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls in July. Market expectations shifted to a potential rate hike in December rather than September. The minutes also discussed possibly reducing FOMC meetings from eight to six per year, as floated by Warsh, to allow more information to accumulate, though no decision was made. Additionally, the AI boom is emerging as an inflation pressure source, boosting demand for electricians, machinists, and engineers and notably increasing their wages.
axios.com Aug 19, 2026
Moody's economist warns Fed silence risks economy
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warned that the Federal Reserve's refusal to provide forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh is a 'serious mistake' risking the economy. On July 29, the Fed voted 9-3 to hold interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with three regional bank presidents dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike to address energy supply shocks. Warsh declined to specify conditions for future rate changes, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to spike to 5.22%, its highest since 2007. Zandi argued this opacity leaves markets repeatedly wrong-footed, fueling volatility in bonds and stocks, and could trigger a severe sell-off threatening the broader economy.
finance.yahoo.com Aug 16, 2026
US to sell 30-year bonds at highest rate since 2001
The US Treasury sold $742 billion in securities over the week, including $585 billion in short-term bills and $157 billion in notes and bonds, with the 30-year bond auction on Thursday yielding 5.216%—the highest since 2001—and the 10-year note auction yielding 4.68%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield in the secondary market closed at 5.26% on Friday, after touching 5.28% earlier in the week. The elevated long-term yields reflect persistent investor concerns over inflation, rising national debt, and massive Treasury supply, with the 30-year bond price having fallen roughly 54% from its August 2020 auction level. Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly nervous enough about the high yields that he attempted to support the yen to prevent Japanese authorities from selling Treasuries, which would push yields even higher. The Fed has not raised rates despite accelerating inflation, cutting rates in 2024 and late 2025, and traders now see a 35% chance of a September hike, down from 50% earlier. Interest on public debt has reached $1.17 trillion for the fiscal year, up 15%, and Fitch Ratings kept its AA+ rating while warning the fiscal deficit would widen in 2026 due to tax cuts and tariff rebates. US consumer confidence fell in August to 51.0 points, the first drop in three months, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.3% amid the Iran conflict's impact on energy costs. The 30-year fixed mortgage average rose to 6.69%, the highest since July 2025. Outstanding Treasuries have doubled since 2018 to about $31 trillion, and traditional buyers have waned, forcing price-sensitive investors to demand higher yields. Vanguard prefers intermediate maturities over the 30-year bond, expecting the 10-year yield in a 4.25%–4.75% range.
theguardian.com Aug 13, 2026
Fed Expected to Raise Rates in September Despite Cooler CPI
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point at its September 2026 meeting, despite a cooler July CPI report showing 3.4% annual inflation and 2.5% core inflation. The author argues the decision is driven by persistent underlying inflationary pressures over several years, not the latest data. Futures markets on August 12 placed 40% odds of a September hike. The Fed, led by Chair Warsh, remains committed to its 2% target, with factors like tariffs, the Iran War's impact on oil prices, and AI-driven economic changes influencing policy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted a single quarter-point hike would have limited effect.
forbes.com Aug 12, 2026
July jobs miss and Fed inflation forecast push rates higher
The Federal Reserve's interest rate path is increasingly uncertain after the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 nonfarm payrolls in July 2026, against expectations for an 80,000 gain, according to the Labor Department's August 8 report. May and June payrolls were revised sharply lower by a combined 103,000, with May's gain cut from 129,000 to 63,000 and June's from 57,000 to 20,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% as labor force participation fell, declining 0.7% since January. Job losses were concentrated in local government education (50,000), retail (nearly 20,000), and financial activities (14,000), while healthcare added 22,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, with three dissenting votes favoring a hike. Markets reacted by slashing the probability of a September rate hike to 44% from 55%, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.627%, the dollar index dropping, and spot gold surging 2.48% to $4,345.82. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin called the report 'very consistent' with a labor market that is 'not loose, not tight,' noting a 'zero-ish workforce growth environment' due to lower immigration and aging demographics. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who favored holding rates, said she would consider how raising rates affects job market stability but noted disinflationary forces may push inflation toward target without a hike. Capital Economics' Thomas Ryan argued the weakness forces the Fed to re-examine labor market health, while Carson Group's Sonu Varghese noted private sector added 30,000 jobs. The inflation picture remains mixed: the Consumer Price Index edged down to 332.568 in June from 333.979 in May, signaling some easing, but travel-related costs are stubbornly high—domestic airfares surged 26.5% year-over-year, North American hotel prices stand 64% above 2019 levels, and motor fuel costs jumped 40.9% compared to last year, partly due to supply-chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. This 'K-shaped' recovery sees affluent consumers continuing to spend on travel while lower-income households tighten budgets. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management strategists, who had previously anticipated a 25-basis-point hike in September, acknowledged that ongoing supply-chain disruptions and investor skepticism have 'lowered the bar' for such a move. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities, described the jobs data as 'a bit dovish on net' but still expects the Fed to focus on inflation and resume rate hikes later this year. Conversely, Cory Stahle of Indeed Hiring Lab suggested the Fed might reconsider the timing of hikes or even contemplate cuts if labor market weakness persists. The New York Fed's July Survey of Consumer Expectations showed rising confidence in finding a job (46.2%) but increased worries about job loss and debt defaults, particularly among households earning under $50,000. One-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations held at 3.3% and 3.0%, well above the Fed's 2% target. The July CPI report, due August 12, will be pivotal in shaping the Fed's September 16 decision, as higher-than-expected inflation could still tip the balance toward a hike, according to Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner and Goldman Sachs' Lindsay Rosner. Geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict disrupting oil supplies, remain a wildcard that could reignite inflationary pressures. Freshly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized in stern tones his goal of fighting inflation, but the weak jobs report may force him to pull back on hawkish rhetoric and look more closely at the labor market part of the Fed's dual mandate. Economists expect July's CPI to come in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June and 4.2% in May. As of Friday afternoon, market odds have the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September, but are still pricing in one to two hikes before the end of the year despite the ice-cold jobs report. Two scenarios could play out: if inflation is hot, stocks may drop as Warsh could hike rates despite the weak jobs outlook, a stagflationary outcome; if inflation is cool enough (low 3s or below), stocks could soar as investors anticipate the Fed can cut rates or at least stay put, potentially reversing expectations for hikes later this year.
businessinsider.com Aug 07, 2026
Kansas City Fed's Schmid says higher rates needed to curb inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid reiterated his primary concern is inflation, arguing in an Aug. 4 speech that monetary policy may not be tight enough and that returning inflation to the Fed's 2% target will require tighter policy. Schmid did not specify the timing or magnitude of potential rate increases, but the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its latest meeting, with three officials voting for a hike. Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed for a fifth straight week to 6.69% as of Aug. 6, its highest level since July 2025, according to Freddie Mac. At that rate, principal and interest on a $400,000 loan would cost about $2,578 per month, roughly $185 more than at February's brief low of 5.98%. Mortgage rates have been influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.65%, up sharply from 3.97% before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February, which also drove oil prices higher. In June, consumer prices were 3.5% higher year-over-year, with energy prices surging 15.7% and gasoline up 26.7%, though overall prices fell 0.4% month-over-month and core inflation (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.6% year-over-year. Schmid had previously cautioned against overemphasizing a single data point, noting volatile oil prices and persistent inflation excluding energy at 3.2%.
finance.yahoo.com Aug 05, 2026