Macro

The U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on most EU goods and proposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 partners, with Australia, Brazil, Chile, and New Zealand opposing. Tariffs have failed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit due to capital inflows, and global supply chains are being reshaped. The situation is escalating with China planning retaliation.

Gold August futures opened at $4,135.40, up 1.2%, reversing a week of declines amid renewed US-Iran military conflict and rising oil prices. Fed rate hike probability remains low at 25.1% for July. The situation is escalating with gold surging to $4,600 as central banks keep buying, driven by safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks.

The Deutsche Bank Research Institute's April 2026 paper notes the US dollar share of global central bank reserves has fallen to ~40% from over 60%, while gold's share tripled to nearly 30%. Crypto exchanges are capturing increased de-dollarization flows as reserves shift. The situation is steady with ongoing dollar debasement concerns.

The dollar stabilized on Friday amid safe-haven demand from escalating Iran-U.S. tensions and a tech-led global equity selloff, but remained on track for a weekly decline after soft U.S. inflation data reduced rate hike expectations. The euro and sterling were flat to lower, while the yen stayed near recent highs. The situation is steady with safe-haven demand.

The US dollar fell to multi-month lows on August 24 amid concerns over long-term fiscal credibility, despite Treasury buyback plans. The euro and pound are supported by ECB and BoE tightening expectations, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD testing key resistance levels. The DXY broke below $99.38 support, triggering further downside. The situation is steady with ongoing dollar weakness.

Power availability, grid approvals, and electrical equipment lead times have overtaken land and servers as the primary constraint on AI data center deployment globally, especially in U.S. hubs like Northern Virginia. Transformer delivery windows have extended to 3-5 years, conflicting with hyperscaler expansion plans. The situation is escalating as power demand surges.

U.S. job openings fell to 7.36 million in June from 7.54 million in May, while layoffs remained steady and quits rose slightly, signaling labor market resilience. The data comes amid an economic shock from fighting in Iran and Strait of Hormuz closure, with average monthly job gains of 92,000 this year. The situation is steady with labor market resilience.

The AI capital-spending boom pushed the S&P 500 near 7,420 and the Dow above 52,000. The rally is concentrated and volatile, with AI stocks experiencing sharp selloffs. The situation is de-escalating with a major South Korea selloff and memory chip crunch, though long-term investment remains high.

China's 2026 licensing catalogue expanded and an enforcement framework penalizes over-quota production. Near-zero shipments to Japan are squeezing tech and clean-energy supply chains. The controls are escalating with new whistleblower programs and indium phosphide restrictions, threatening global semiconductor and defense supply chains.

Central banks in the US, UK, and eurozone struggle with rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict, which fuel inflation but threaten economic growth. The Federal Reserve under new boss Kevin Warsh has abandoned forward guidance and launched a reform review, while the Bank of England and ECB diverge on policy. The situation is steady with ongoing dilemma.

OpenAI and Anthropic have alerted U.S. officials that tens of thousands of fake accounts are being used by at least one Chinese competitor to illicitly copy their AI models via distillation. The White House previously outlined steps to address such industrial-scale intellectual property theft. The situation is escalating as Chinese AI advances spark US concerns.

UK inflation is expected to accelerate in July to 2.9%, driven by AI-related memory chip shortages and higher energy costs from the Iran war. The Bank of England faces pressure as Chief Economist Huw Pill advocates for tighter rates. Apple laptops and Xbox consoles may see price increases, signaling broader consumer impact. The situation is steady with ongoing inflation.

Taiwan is weighing stricter curbs on AI-chip exports to China to align with US controls and stop smuggling of Nvidia hardware. TSMC makes roughly 90% of the world's most advanced chips and about 99% of frontier-AI chips, so any disruption would hit global GDP and every advanced-manufacturing sector. The situation is escalating with new warnings and potential controls.

China's July auto sales data shows battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales up 6% year-over-year while pure internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales collapsed 44%, leading to an overall market decline of 3.9%. Plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs also fell, but BEVs alone gained, reaching a record market share. The situation is steady with ongoing shift to EVs.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on PBS that the dollar could lose its reserve-currency status if the US fails to maintain economic and military superiority. He cited vulnerabilities in reliance on China for critical materials and inadequate domestic production for prolonged conflict. The situation is steady with no recent escalation.

President Trump said he fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on 2025-08-25, citing mortgage-fraud allegations from FHFA Director Bill Pulte — the first attempted removal of a Fed governor in the central bank's history. Cook refused to resign, said no legal 'cause' exists, and hired attorney Abbe Lowell. The situation is steady as the legal battle continues.

China's sweeping tech transfer controls restrict overseas technology transfers and authorize retaliation against nations limiting Chinese tech investments. The regulations target cleantech manufacturing in response to EU EV tariffs. The situation is escalating with new retaliation authority, as US-China trade war intensifies.

The article analyzes Canada-EU collaboration on critical minerals processing (midstream) to reduce reliance on China, which controls over 70% of global refining. The EU's 2030 target to cover 40% of its strategic raw material processing capacity drives this partnership, leveraging Canada's low-carbon energy. The situation is steady with ongoing cooperation.

Glencore forecasts $3.3 billion first-half marketing EBIT, exceeding its full-year 2025 profit, due to extreme energy market volatility from the war with Iran. The commodity trader's trading division is on track for record annual earnings if volatility persists. Shell also expects higher oil and LNG trading profits. The situation is steady with ongoing volatility.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio argues the U.S. is in decline due to geopolitical missteps like the Iran war, questioning its will to intervene in a Taiwan blockade. He warns a Chinese blockade could crash global markets by halting TSMC semiconductor exports. Prediction markets show low odds of a blockade, but the risk remains significant.

A severe 'Super El Niño' is forecasted to emerge this year, posing a second major shock to already tight commodities markets amid Middle East tensions. Bank of America strategists warn of potential droughts, floods, and disrupted crop cycles, threatening agricultural output and energy demand. The situation is escalating as the El Niño threat adds to existing supply risks.

Bitcoin opened at $63,788.52 on July 17, 2026, down 1.4%, and Ethereum at $1,863.16, down 2.8%, as U.S. airstrikes on Iran dampened risk assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pressure crypto markets. The situation is steady with ongoing pressure from the Iran conflict.

Wheat futures posted modest gains Monday, driven by continued buying from the escalating Black Sea conflict disrupting exports. USDA data shows wheat sales ahead of pace, while managed money slashed net shorts in Chicago wheat. The complex remains supported by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Bank of America predicts the US dollar will strengthen further in late 2026, driven by Middle East conflict, the AI boom, and higher interest rates. The bank's FX desk highlights oil demand, foreign equity investment, and a hawkish Fed call as key supports. This is a one-off forecast.

The IRS increased the standard mileage deduction rate for business to 76 cents per mile, up from 72.5 cents, effective retroactively to July 1, 2026, citing recent fuel price increases. The adjustment, the first midyear change since 2022, occurs amid a 24.7% year-over-year rise in gas prices partly due to geopolitical tensions. This is a one-off policy change.

SpaceX's stock has dropped below its IPO price, losing over $1 trillion in market cap, causing Elon Musk's net worth to fall to $856 billion. The decline occurred amid a global selloff driven by South Korea's rate hike and inflation concerns. This development removes Musk from the trillionaire club.

China's economy grew 4.3% in Q2 2024, the slowest since late 2022, missing forecasts and down from 5% Q1. Exports surged 27% in June driven by AI and EVs, but weak domestic demand and a property slump weighed on growth. The data signals an increasingly unbalanced growth model, with implications for global markets.

Sovereign wealth funds managing over $15 trillion are prioritizing strategic goals like AI and semiconductors. Direct investments fell 17% but total spending surged 91% to $404 billion. The trend is steady as funds continue to align with national priorities, with NATO allies committing $1.21 trillion in defense spending boost.

Swift announced its blockchain-based ledger is ready for initial use, enabling 24/7 cross-border payments with tokenised deposits. Seventeen banks from six continents, including ANZ, Citi, and HSBC, will pilot live transactions. The initiative is steady as it moves toward implementation, with potential to reshape global payments.

The war continues with Russia claiming Kostiantynivka and Ukraine rejecting a local ceasefire. European leaders back direct talks, but no breakthrough is in sight. The situation remains active with no clear turn toward resolution.

The article describes the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle from 2024 through 2026, with the federal funds effective rate declining from a peak in August 2023 to **** percent in April 2026. It notes a coordinated global shift toward accommodative monetary policy as inflation moderated. The market expects further cuts.

Fighting since March 2026 has killed over 4,000 and displaced a million. A US-brokered ceasefire cut violence by 35%, but Israel remains entrenched in south Lebanon, straining the wider US-Iran deal. The situation is steady with no clear de-escalation.

CXMT, China's leading DRAM manufacturer, is preparing for a landmark IPO on the STAR Market, aiming to challenge incumbents Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The company's technology is built on Qimonda's patents and talent, supported by patient state-venture capital from Hefei. The IPO marks a major milestone but the situation is still unfolding.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in June 2026 under Chair Kevin Warsh, halting a prior streak of cuts. A rise in May's CPI to 4.2% signaled renewed inflation pressure, shifting market expectations toward higher rates by year-end. With no cuts anticipated in the second half, the upcoming July FOMC meeting will be a key indicator of the Fed's policy direction.

Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in years on 2023-10-07, combining thousands of rockets from Gaza with gunmen crossing the border; Israel declared war and mobilized reserves. The eruption of a major Middle East war revived risk premiums in oil and defence assets and raised fears of regional escalation involving Iran.

UBS agreed to buy 167-year-old rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs (~$3.2 billion) in an emergency rescue brokered by Swiss authorities over a single weekend, with the Swiss National Bank providing large liquidity backstops. The shotgun deal aimed to stem contagion threatening the global banking system after the U.S. regional bank failures.

The US is urging Taiwan to enforce stricter controls on AI chip exports to China, targeting smuggling of Nvidia hardware. As TSMC produces nearly all frontier AI chips, restrictions could disrupt global supply chains and advanced manufacturing, while a potential Nvidia H20 deal hinges on Chinese rare earth concessions.