Macro

Persistent high prices across food, gas, and leisure activities continue to strain US consumers, with costs remaining elevated above pre-pandemic levels and further pressured by the conflict with Iran. A typical grocery basket was 41% higher in July than in 2019, with coffee prices more than doubling and beef surging. Dining out is costly: cold brew averages $5.62, burgers $14.71, and beer $6.60. Movie tickets hit $13.48, domestic airfares rose to $367, and international flights to $878. Car ownership is pricier, with average new vehicle payments at $808 per month and transaction prices near $49,758, driving more consumers toward 84-month loans.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and gas, draining consumer discretionary budgets, while rising mortgage delinquencies signaled housing-affordability stress and major retail-store closures (footwear chain shutting 82 stores) confirmed weakening low-end demand.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring, reigniting inflation and keeping mortgage and cap rates high; the energy-driven rate pressure hit the leveraged property owner even as real assets offered a partial inflation hedge.

Brent and WTI crude prices spiked amid a tightened U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and the UAE's announcement to exit OPEC, exacerbating supply concerns. The moves, combined with OPEC+ delays in boosting supply, threaten to keep oil prices elevated near $118/bbl, complicating market stability ahead of U.S. elections.

Energy sentiment is sharply positive this month, driven by a surge in oil prices following the U.S. imposition of a full blockade on Iranian oil exports and the UAE’s unexpected withdrawal from OPEC. The UAE’s move signals a potential shift in OPEC+ cohesion, amplifying market concerns over supply discipline, while the Iran blockade removes a significant volume of crude from global markets. Geopolitical risk and supply uncertainty are tightening the physical market, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Mortgage rates rose for the fifth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing eight basis points to 6.46% for the week ending Wednesday, the highest since Sept. 4, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year loan edged up two basis points to 5.77%. The increases, driven by market volatility tied to President Trump's comments on the Middle East war, have dampened spring home buying. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported overall loan applications fell over 10%, with refinances dropping 17% and down over 40% from last month. Purchase applications dipped only 3%, as a buyer's market in some areas offsets higher rates. New listings jumped over 20% from February to March, but economists caution that March's momentum may falter if economic uncertainty persists.

An oil shock from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz revived inflation and rate-hike fears, and an AI-stock tumble delivered the market's worst day of the year, pressuring asset managers and brokers. Rising rate-hike odds were a mixed blessing for bank NIM;

I entered the year still under policy pressure (MFN pricing implementation, tariffs, FDA/RFK uncertainty) and washed-out managed-care and biotech valuations, but as the mid-year Strait-of-Hormuz oil shock drove markets risk-off…

Digital-ad giants stayed resilient while linear cable eroded (Charter underperforming the S&P), but Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil stoked inflation and consumer strain mid-year, pressuring ad demand. Neutral, dipping on the oil shock.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil soaring mid-year, spiking fuel and input costs and hitting transports, but the structural reshoring/electrification buildout, strong defense demand and aerospace optimism (SpaceX's record IPO) restored momentum by year-end.

The data-center load growth and grid capex supercycle sustained buoyant owner sentiment, tempered mid-year when Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and stoked fuel-cost and inflation worries, partly offset by the high power prices our generators captured.

Tim Cook has stepped down as Apple CEO, succeeded by hardware engineering chief John Ternus. Cook will remain as executive chair, focusing on policy engagement. During his 14-year tenure, Apple's market cap surged from $350 billion to over $4 trillion, revenue quadrupled to $416 billion, and iPhone revenue grew to $209.6 billion. He oversaw launches of Apple Watch, AirPods, and the Mac transition to custom silicon. Ternus takes over amid Apple's push to catch up in AI, with plans for a Gemini-powered Siri update, a foldable iPhone, and smart glasses.

An 'AI supercycle' melt-up with an AI-driven memory-chip shortage that is a pricing windfall for chipmakers; China's gallium curbs and a Strait-of-Hormuz oil shock are frictions but AI demand keeps a tech owner near-euphoric.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil and commodity prices elevated and inflationary, sustaining strong revenue and lofty gold prices for materials owners, though 2025's mania plateaued into a high but steadier range.

Sustained euphoria with a US defense budget near $1 trillion, Europe ramping toward NATO's 5% target, and a mid-year Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis and oil spike (per the ledger) driving further military escalation and demand.